Integración de Modelos Ecológicos y Herramientas Bioinformáticas para la Estimación del Riesgo de Spodoptera frugiperda en Zonas Agrícolas Ecuatorianas
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.28940/terralatinoamericana.v44i.2440Palabras clave:
agricultura de precisión, análisis espacial, métricas de rendimiento, plaga agrícola, predicción de distribuciónResumen
El gusano cogollero (Spodoptera frugiperda) es una plaga polífaga que afecta a diversos cultivos de importancia económica a nivel mundial, es el maíz (Zea mays) su principal hospedero. En este estudio se evaluó la eficacia de seis métodos estadísticos de complejidad variable para modelar la distribución potencial de S. podoptera frugiperda y determinar zonas agrícolas de alto riesgo en Ecuador continental. Se emplearon herramientas SIG, diversos paquetes estadísticos, variables bioclimáticas y registros de presencia para modelar el nicho ecológico de la especie en su espacio ambiental. Los mapas de probabilidad de presencia de la plaga obtenidos en RStudio fueron reclasificados en ArcGIS utilizando el umbral de prevalencia de los modelos para generar mapas de distribución potencial de la especie. El rendimiento de los modelos se evaluó mediante un conjunto de métricas, entre las cuales destacan: AUC, estadística de habilidad verdadera, pendiente de calibración de Miller y validación cruzada. Las zonas agrícolas de alto riesgo en Ecuador continental se delimitaron mediante análisis espaciales de la cobertura de suelo y los mapas de distribución potencial de la especie. El estudio confirma el valor de GLM/GAM/GBM como bases robustas (individuales o en ensamble) para mapear riesgo de S. frugiperda en Ecuador, delimitar zonas agrícolas prioritarias en Costa y valles de Sierra y reafirma la hipótesis de que las altas temperaturas son cruciales para su desarrollo y propagación, mientras que las precipitaciones excesivas actúan como factor limitante. Actualmente, la distribución potencial de S. frugiperda se concentra principalmente en la región Costa del país. Los datos obtenidos permiten comprender el potencial de invasión de S. frugiperda y proporcionan una línea base para futuros estudios sobre plagas en cultivos de interés. Esto contribuye al desarrollo de estrategias preventivas de manejo integrado de plagas, reduciendo el riesgo para la seguridad alimentaria y minimizando impactos negativos en el ecosistema.
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