Dynamics of Land Cover and Land Use in the Laguna de Zapotlán Basin

Abstract

Natural ecosystems are undergoing accelerated transformations that are profoundly af fecting biodiversity and water resources; therefore, monitoring land cover and use (LCU) is crucial for sustainable territorial management. This study characterizes the spatiotemporal dynamics of LCU in the Laguna de Zapotlán Basin (CLZ), Jalisco, Mexico, from 1976 to 2023. INEGI Vegetation and Land Use Maps (Series I–VII), standardized into eight classes, and a Sentinel-2 image (2023) were used to estimate gains, losses, transitions, and the annual rate of change (ACR). Current land use (2023) was mapped by photointerpretation and validated in QGIS–AcATaMa with 50 points per class (overall accuracy = 91.7%, Kappa = 0.91). Between 1976 and 2021, 63.7% of the CLZ remained unchanged, whereas 36.2% underwent transitions. The conversion from rainfed to irrigated agriculture was the dominant process, with irrigated agriculture gaining 9721 ha (+105.9% relative to its initial area). Forest land decreased by 4.4% and induced grassland by 78.6%, while human settlements increased by 214.2%. In 2023, agricultural land occupied 21 908 ha (47.8%), of which 3668 ha (8%) corresponded to protected agriculture, reflecting agroindustrial intensification driven by high-value markets and local policies. These transformations alter infiltration, runof f, and groundwater recharge, with critical implications for an endorheic basin and potential pressure on groundwater resources. The results underscore the need for continuous monitoring, regulation, and integrated policies that balance agricultural development with conservation, particularly of the Laguna de Zapotlán Ramsar wetland. The study provides an updated baseline and, despite the limited scale of of ficial series, of fers robust evidence to guide environmental planning and management in the CLZ.